Cowen thinks there is a 0% chance that $BTC.D keeps dropping here.
The reason BTC Dominance is likely going to find a low soon (plenty of lows for dominance in September) and start going back up is because there are only 3 outcomes for the price of BTC and all 3 outcomes historically tend to lead to dominance going higher.
1) If BTC bounces off the 20W SMA and heads higher, then BTC leads the bull market and dominance goes up (see what happened in 2017)
2) If BTC does not hold the 20W SMA and drops to the 50W SMA like in Q3 2024 and Q1 2025, then ALTs get rinsed as they would then be concerned for the health of the bull market. In that case a 10% drop for BTC would be a 30%+ drop for most ALTs.
3) If BTC just sits at the 20W SMA for all of September (like 2020), then ALTs slowly bleed out to BTC and BTC dominance goes up.
So basically, no matter the direction of BTC/USD, BTC Dominance will likely find a low extremely soon and start heading higher.
I think we are about to kickoff the final rotation into Bitcoin for this market cycle.
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